Redskins and the election

Wierd statistical correlation between the fortunes of the Washington Redskins football team and the Presidential election. Since 1933, if the Redskins win on the weekend before the election, then the incumbent party has won. If the Redskins lose, the challenger has won. The Redskins play the Green Bay Packers this weekend in Washington.

The Polls

I think most polls suggest that Bush will win the election. My prediction was that he would win by 8 points, but the polls suggest more like a 5 point gap. It'll take a major change of opinion over the next few days for Kerry to win. There are suggestions that Ohio may turn out to be the Florida of 2004. It is so close that both candidates have a chance and if it comes down to a few hundred vote difference, expect both parties to park their brigade of lawyers in that state for a month or two and fight a long and testing legal battle. I won't be surprised if there are a couple of other states that will also be close that will invite legal challenges. All in all an interesting next few days.

Kerry mangles his speeches

Here's a great piece on how Kerry manages to underwhelm with his speeches. I tried listening to him the other day, and I couldn't help notice how bad he was in his delivery. On the other hand, Bush reads his speeches as they are written (we know he doesn't do quite well when he has to deliver a speech extempore) and he comes across as far more effective, confident and sure of himself.

An unwelcome intruder

Creepy stuff. Life can be stranger than fiction sometimes.

To refinance or not to...

Made the decision to go with a 5/1 ARM. Got a good rate with no points and no closing costs. I was reading Money magazine and most pundits who study the market say that this is the time to lock in a fixed rate. Interest rates they say are at a historic low and will only go up from here. So their advice is that if you know that you are going to be in the house long term, then this is the time to lock up a good rate on a 30yr fixed. But I don't know if I will be in this house past 5 years. I like the house, but the school district is below par. Had it been a good school district, I guess I would have gone in for a 30yr fixed. Another factor is that I don't know if I will be in this country 5 years from now. I may move back to India where all the tech action is. So for the moment I opted for a 5/1 ARM. Only time will tell if this was the right decision.

Cashed the check

I came in on Monday and was a little tense because I had to talk to my manager about quitting. I basically told her why I was quitting and about the opportunity that I had gotten and the growth potential that I saw for myself. I was pretty surprised that they tried to stop me from going and even were prepared to counter offer. Everything that I do here can be done in India for less, so I was surprised that they even thought they should try and keep me. But I have been here for 5 years, am jaded and I think a new job will be like a breath of fresh air.

Went around the office and told everyone that I knew personally that I had decided to move on. Couldn't catch B who was on his way to Toronto. But he says he will be back on Friday.

Now got to kill time until next Friday, which will be my last day at work.

Alan Keyes on Iraq

I caught just a small portion of the debate between Alan Keyes and Barack Obama in the Illinois senate race. Keyes was sounding off on Iraq. In justifying the war he cited the example of countries like Sudan and Libya who have begun to cooperate with the U.S. lest they become the next target. He also said that the other benefit was that we now have a base in the Middle East which we can use to thwart the evil ambitions of other countries. What? Did I hear that right? A base? So when we went in there we had designs of territorial hegemony? If that is what we really have in mind, god save us. That will send exactly the wrong message to the Iraqi people and almost surely turn this into a disaster. Now I know that Keyes is on the fringes of the radical right in his views. But his thoughts give you a window into the neoconservative thought and it is troubling to say the least.

Karl Rove is a genius

The manufactured anger and the flimsy hypocrisy of people criticising Kerry for mentioning the sexual orientation of Dick Cheney's daughter is astonishing. I can't figure out why that is an issue. She wasn't outed. Everyone knew she was lesbian. She has been mentioned before in the debates. So what is the big deal? Lets assume that Kerry had ulterior motives and was trying to drive a wedge among Bush's supporters who are opposed to homosexuality. They won't vote for Kerry anway. If they were opposed to Bush just for that reason, they'd simply hold their nose and vote for him rather than vote for Kerry. So Kerry had absolutely no reason whatsoever to harbor bad intentions in mentioning the VP's daughter. You can't help but admire the guys who advise Bush. They divert attention to inane topics that don't matter zilch to stop the public from focusing on the main issues. Top of the line media strategy. These guys are simply brilliant! They know how to win!

Got it!

Finally got the job offer! Actually I had two job offers. One from a company that is pretty stable and poised for growth and the other that is relatively stable (compared to the company i work for presently) but is going through some turbulent times. As luck would have it, the job at the stable company was stale and boring. The job at the other company was exciting and just what I want to do. Throughout my life, i have always made conservative decisions by choosing the less risky option. This time I made an exception and chose the risky option. Only time will tell if this was the right decision to make.

O'Reilly Factored

There is no love lost between Drudge and O'Reilly and sure enough Drudge was among the first to report the story about a sexual harrassment lawsuit filed against O'Reilly. It is hard to figure out who is telling the truth in these cases.

I remember watching his program and listen to him make references to his younger days and his pursuit of women. Nothing graphic, but just little hints here and there while he told a story to make a point. I used to wonder then if he had a raunchy side to him. This story makes me wonder more. Although to be fair, someone who did what he is accused of will usually leave a long trail. If more women come out and accuse him, then it will be hard not to believe the womans story. If not, then you have to question the young lady's motive.

Then again, O'Reilly and Fox did try to reach a settlement. This makes you wonder if the story has legs and Fox/O'Reilly worried. On the flip side, the woman was asking for $60 million to settle, which is a lot of money and makes you wonder if she is doing this only for the money.

Baffled

I have been reading a couple of conservative blogs. Supposedly these people are very religious and wear their religion on their sleeves. That is their right and I have nothing against it. But their criticism of Kerry often meanders into the personal. Does religion condone that? I thought every religion teaches you to love thy neighbor regardless of differences.

To be fair, I think you can find some lunatics on the left who also engage in this behavior. Why do you have to hate people for their politics?

It is one thing to say that you disagree with a persons policies, but it is quite another to be personal in your criticism. I think you elevate the level of discourse in this country when you believe that most people have good intentions. If you disagree with the policies they espouse then by all means criticize the policies, but don't demean the person behind it.

I think it is helpful to realize that both President Bush and Senator Kerry are seeking a job that is 24x7, stressful beyond imagination and extremely demanding. I don't envy them at all given the responsibilities of the office they are seeking. You have to be a "little mad" to seek the office of the Presidency of the US of A. It is a thankless job and you are criticized regardless of what you do. Give them credit for seeking such a tough job.

I think both men love their country. They have a different set of policies and a different set of convictions. Vote for the one you feel most comfortable with. Criticize their policies if you so wish, but do it with decency. At least I feel much better when I do that. And I assure you that you will too.

The third debate

I think this one was a draw. Bush was much better compared to his performance in the first debate - compared being the operative word. As a whole I think Kerry has gained more from the debates than Bush. He came in lagging in the polls and many people were writing his obituary. His performance in the three debates has been steady; he has looked presidential and he has spoken in that calm assured manner that people expect from their President. So I think he has helped himself. Bush did too little in the first debate, too much in the second debate and was himself in this the third debate. Bush's performances in the debates bear a stark resemblance to Gore's performance in 2000.

I still think this election is going to break out in the final week. Somebody is going to pull ahead and I am betting that it will be Bush. I think people will just decide that in uncertain times they would rather go in with a known quantity than a unknown quantity and vote for Bush. I still predict a Bush victory by 8 points.

Terrorists as nuisance

Bush seems to be beating Kerry over the head for his comment in an NYT article about how he views terrorism. Kerry I think rightfully says that "we have to get back to the place we were, where terrorists are not the focus of our lives, but they're a nuisance". What is wrong with that statement? I think that is stating the truth. I don't think we can ever hope to root out the menace of terrorism, atleast in my lifetime. To believe that is to live in a fantasy world. Every time we take out one terrorist, there will always be twenty more ready to take his/her place. That is reality.

That NYT article is a great read. It very succintly puts into perspective the differences between the two candidates and their respective worldviews.

Haight

This weekend we went to San Francisco. W has been wanting to get a temporary tatoo. She's been fixated on that for quite some time and we finally decided to go to SF and see if she found something she liked. V said that you could get plenty of choices in the Haight Ashbury section of town and that is where we went. Before we went there though, we went to Golden Gate Park, rented boats and went around Stow Lake. H and I rented a pedal boat, because we didn't feel comfortable with a row boat. At first, we pedalled furiously, but after a while we realized that pedalling slowly was much more efficient.

Haight is where the hippie section of town hangs out. You find people who live in a completely different world than the one I am generally familiar with. Drugs are probably pedalled illicitly on the streets. W pointed out a man who had a suspcious bulge in his pockets and mumbled at every passerby. I wonder if he was pedalling cocaine. If you haven't been to Haight, you really haven't seen SF. It is quite an experience to walk the streets and get a window into another subculture.

For dinner we went to a Ethiopian place called Massawa. The food was very similar to Indian food, though it is no surprise that I think Indian food tastes better.

The teacher and the student

Something in this story just doesn't make any sense. You can sense it is a train wreck waiting to happen.

The cost of war

Check out this story in this weekends Washington Post Magazine.

Prison experts

What's up with all these experts showing up on TV and giving us a window into what a day in prison - where Martha Stewart began her sentence today - is like? These experts were former inmates. Formerly there was some shame associated with being convicted and sentenced to prison. Once released, people usually slunk away into oblivion. Now they are on TV on almost every conceivable news channel appearing as experts. Has the world changed or what?

The second debate - lessons of history

In 1984, Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale squared off for the second debate. Reagan had performed poorly in the first debate and there were real questions as to whether he was capable of discharging his duties as President in the second term. His age was an issue and his debate performance had further accentuated concerns. In the second debate, Reagan made his now famous comment where he said that he would not make age an issue in the campaign. He said he would not exploit, for political purposes, the youth and inexperience of his opponent. That comment brought the house down, resurrected Reagan's fortunes and led him to an overwhelming victory over Mondale in the general election.

We lie on the cusp of a similar juncture in the history of this Presidential election. Bush by all accounts acquitted himself poorly in the first debate. The townhall setting in this the second debate is supposed to play to his strenghts as a compassionate conservative who connects well with lay people. Will he come up with a line that resonates and KO's Kerry tonight? He very well might. Tonight may mark a critical point in this election season.

I have a feeling that Bush will do very well, arrest Kerry's momentum since the last debate and regain the advantage in this election.

Not going to happen

The good news is that I received email from the hiring manager. The bad news is that he requested more time for making a decision. That tells me that there was at least one negative opinion (and I would imagine two to have an impact) about me during the interview process.

Anyways things happen for a reason. I can think back to W's interview with Amgen in LA. She was hopeful about getting the job. If she had, it would have meant that we move to SoCal. Amgen didn't even bother sending her a reply and she was so dissappointed. Looking back, it was a good thing it did not work out. She is much happier where she is now and we didn't have to move out of the Bay Area.

The cost of software bugs

Quite an interesting article . The statistic about the cost of software bugs to the U.S economy ($59 billion) is stunning. The article says a third of it could be saved by improved testing.

On a related note, I was reading an article in Computerworld. This is an interview with the HP CIO about the order processing snafus they hit last quarter. He effects an artful dance with words as he tries to explain what went wrong.

Waiting in anticipation

Have you wanted something bad and then had to endure a long wait to find out if you got it? I am going through such a phase at the moment and it is no fun. I want this to be over with one way or the other. I sure wish I'd get the good news, but I am prepared to hear the bad news as well. After all Murphy's law has this curious way of working itself into the picture, dashing hopes and turning conventional wisdom on its head. I came out of the interview on Friday afternoon feeling good about myself and the way I had performed. But that is only my perception of how it went. God alone knows if the guys who interviewed me felt the same. At least one senior development manager I thought had reservations about my experience. I wonder if others had concerns about me as well. Heck! I am overanalyzing this already. Let the chips fall where they may. I'll hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Man! is this a nervous time or what?

The VP debate

So I admit I was wrong on the first debate. I really thought that Bush would outperform Kerry. But Kerry held his own and outdid Bush. Perhaps it was a case of overconfidence on Bush's part, but I'm sure he will rectify it in the next two debates.

The VP debate I am betting will be won by Cheney. Just examine the facts. Edwards - while he was a lawyer and has argued cases in front of a jury and has six years of experience debating in the Senate - has never been in a two man debate. Cheney has this calm, assured slightly avuncular presence about him that he uses to devastating effect while debating his opponents. He took Lieberman to the cleaners in the VP debate 4 years ago and I expect him to wipe Edwards off the slate tomorrow. Its a must win for Cheney too given his boss' pathetic performance last Thursday and I think Cheney will be equal to the task. I will be listening closely for sure. Sadly I was wrong on the first debate, so there is no reason to believe I will be right this time either.